March 15th, 2010
If you want to survive in this game, then you have to use effective money management.
Sports Betting Secret #11: Sports Betting Money Management Secrets
- Only invest what you can realistically afford to lose. You have to remember that you really do not need to start with al a lot of money. I got started with only $100 dollars and I followed the system and my money has doubled over and over again over the course of years.
- Do not make your initial bet too high. Only invest 5% of your total bankroll for a flat betting system (in which you bet the same amount each time) and no more than 2% for a progressive system. You need to be patient here and allow your systems to do their slow and steady work.
- Increase your initial bets when your bankroll has increased by 25%. This will increase your earning power, just remember to stick to the suggested percentages in #2.
- Remember to Diversify your portfolio. If you have a total bankroll of $1000 and 4 systems that you would like to use, then each system should be allotted $250 and you have to keep those amounts separate.
You have to be disciplined in your use of your systems and in your money management strategy. It can be difficult especially you are doing exceptionally well or if you are losing badly. You may be tempted to deviate from the systems or the money management guidelines in either of those situations. But do not, just remain diligent and the rewards are sure to follow.
Thanks and talk to you soon.
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March 15th, 2010
Did you know that some very successful sports bettors have come from Wall-Street as accomplished financial investors? They took their same theories and financial market strategies and applied them to sports betting.
They are disciplined in their use of systems to extract small profits time after time after time until they have doubled their initial investment over and over. They are satisfied with minimal but very consistent gains because they know that they will add up over time. After all, a fund made up of pure financial assets that can return 25% in a year is considered to be very good. Whereas in sports betting, someone following a good system can double their money in one season in one sport, easily!
The investors also bring another important idea to the table. The concept of “Diversification” basically means not to put all your eggs in one basket. That means not to use just one sports betting system just like how investors do not invest all their money in one stock or financial derivative. The law of averages dictates that every system may have some rough patches and perhaps lose a string of games, just like any particular stock can fall in value for a period of time. Using multiple systems will protect you and minimize your losses when those rough patches do occur.
Investors also operate pretty much like machines and do precisely as the systems tell them to do. They do not let their heads get in the way and trust that the system will work in the end. The investing mindset realizes that there will be losses over the course of time and do not get too upset as they do happen. Also they know that their consistent small gains will outweigh their occasional losses. As a result, they show consistent gains and end up doubling their money over and over.
This is pretty much the opposite of the experience that most sports bettors have. The entire psychology of the average gambler is much more instant gratification oriented. The average gambler does not have a long term goal or vision. The average gambler wants to get rich right now!
So they end up using horrendous money management and chase their favorite teams, the popular “hot” teams regardless of the point spread, hope to strike it big with teasers, parlays and other sucker bets. For the most, part they all end up losing their money over and over again. They have the idea that they are going to get rich fast, and that is the problem.
The investment mindset is patient and has long term goals. So my advice is to think like an investor. Think of your betting systems as investment vehicles and assets that are going to bring you long-term wealth. I know that when I did this, it made a HUGE difference for me.
Think about this and I will talk to you soon.
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March 3rd, 2010
The media tends to cover the NFL quite thoroughly. This is true from both a betting and a non-betting standpoint and some of the information that the media gives you is essential to your sports betting success.
That said, there is also a TON of NFL media coverage that does more harm than good to the average bettor. NFL analysts in the newspapers and on ESPN can break everything down including the West Coast Offense, zone blitzing, and nickel and dime packages. They can analyze what has happened in the past and pin statistics to it.
Hearing all these stats and theories can be intimidating to the beginning better, especially if he or she does not really understand football. What the beginning bettor does not realize, is that is one thing to interpret past results and quite another to predict the future. TV analysts are spectacular and reporting the past but handicappers must predict the future.
Additionally, beginning sports bettors are also often thrown when an analysts makes a pick that goes against theirs. They tend to question their pick and go with the analyst instead. This is not a profitable way to do things. This is precisely why I recommend beginners use a system that tells them exactly what type of bet to take and no others. Then there is no guessing, no analyzing, and no indecision. You will make only these kinds of picks and no others.
The coverage of the NFL is so thorough that there is pretty much no stone left unturned. And now with the prevalence of the internet, the information is available for anyone and everyone. And because everyone has access to pretty much the same information, I shy away from basing my picks off what the analysts say. There are very few analysts whose opinions I respect week in and week out.
That is why I always advise that your picks be based upon statistical analysis and NOT the fundamental analysis of ESPN analysts. Just stick to the system.
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March 2nd, 2010
Sports Betting Secret #17: What Line Moves Mean
Think about the casino\sports book\bookie’s point of view for a minute. Their only goal is to take as many bets as possible while having an equal amount of action on each side of the bets. That way they make their percentage and do not risk losing money.
However, most of the time more money will come in on one side of the bet than on the other side of the bet. This puts the house at risk. If the team that has the most money bet on it wins, the bookie can be out a ton of money.
What should the sports books do if all the money is coming in on one side of the bet? This is where line moves come in. What the sports books do is adjust the line so that it is more attractive to bet on the other team. This way more people will bet on the other side of the bet and the sports book will end up more balanced. So that is why there is line moves.
When all the money is coming in on one side of the bet, the line will move to make the other side of the bet more attractive. This is also an indication of what the smart money is doing. There is some ultra-superstar bettors that everyone else tends to copy. When one of these superstars places a bet, often their bet will be imitated across the globe and it causes the line to shift.
So, that is often the hidden reason for those line changes.
Another reason can be an overwhelming public opinion. If the betting public (the global pool of sports bettors) believe one side of the bet is stronger than the other, then the majority of the bets will come in on that side. Line moves do not necessarily have to be following the “smart money.”
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March 1st, 2010
So line moves are when the sports books change the point spreads as the game approaches. This is because more money was coming in on one side of the bet than the other. So where is the great opportunity for you?
The opportunity is called “Sports Betting Arbitrage” and it has been statistically proven to work over a long period of time. It is not some new flash-in-the-pan technique. Gamblers have been using it to make consistent money over a long period of time. So, it definitely works.
The trick is to act when the opportunity presents itself. Let’s say that you have placed a bet on the Cowboys and they are favored by 6 ½ points over the Redskins. As the game approaches let’s say that the line jumps to 7 ½ points. What you would do then is take the 7 ½ points and bet on the Redskins. This way, no matter what happens you will win at least one of the bets.
And if the Cowboys win the game by exactly 7 points, then you will win BOTH bets! That is really the magical opportunity that you go for, the chance to win both bets. If you do it that way, you could actually place both bets at the same sports book.
However, there is another way. Not all the lines change at all the sports books at the same time. So if you have accounts at multiple sports books and you see that there is two different point spreads at two different places then you bet one side of the bet at one sports book and the other side of the bet at the other sports book.
There is actually software available that will allow you to see all the different point spreads available across the globe simultaneously. That way you can wait like a sniper for just such opportunities. Pretty cool.
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February 28th, 2010
Think about the casino\sports book\bookie’s point of view for a minute. Their only goal is to take as many bets as possible while having an equal amount of action on each side of the bets. That way they make their percentage and do not risk losing money.
However, most of the time more money will come in on one side of the bet than on the other side of the bet. This puts the house at risk. If the team that has the most money bet on it wins, the bookie can be out a ton of money.
What should the sports books do if all the money is coming in on one side of the bet? This is where line moves come in. What the sports books do is adjust the line so that it is more attractive to bet on the other team. This way more people will bet on the other side of the bet and the sports book will end up more balanced. So that is why there is line moves.
When all the money is coming in on one side of the bet, the line will move to make the other side of the bet more attractive. This is also an indication of what the smart money is doing. There is some ultra-superstar bettors that everyone else tends to copy. When one of these superstars places a bet, often their bet will be imitated across the globe and it causes the line to shift.
So, that is often the hidden reason for those line changes.
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February 27th, 2010
The point spread is a handicap given to the team that is favored to win the game in terms of final score point differential. For instance, lets say that the Green Bay Packers are favored by 3 ½ points over the Chicago Bears and you bet on the Packers. That means that if the Packers win by four points or more, you win. But if Chicago wins or loses the game by 3 points or less, you will lose the bet.
This is usually phrased as the Packers are 3 ½ point favorites or the Bears are 3 ½ point underdogs. Another way to phrase it is that the “Packers are laying three and half” or the “Packers are giving three and a half.” And the Bears would be “taking 3 points.” That is what they mean.
In a slightly different example, lets say that the Packers are only favored by 3 points. What happens if the Packers go on to win by exactly 3 points? Nobody wins, the game is considered to be a “push” in which nobody loses any money.
The point spread was a great innovation for the bookies because it really makes both sides of the bet seem attractive and it has allowed bookies and sports books to take bets on both sides of the bet much more easily.
Betting against the point spread is by far the most common NFL bet made today.
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February 25th, 2010
It is critical that you learn these principles or else you are pretty much just throwing money down the drain.
Sports Betting Secret #15: The REAL Secrets To Money Management
- Minimizing Losses – is the key to becoming a winner. If you can show me a guy that can intelligently cut his losses at the right time, then I can show you someone that can make money in sports betting. The main key is to keep your losing streaks affordable so you can stay in the game.
The most important concept in protecting yourself during a bad run of games is to set a stop-loss limit. Smart bettors never allow themselves to get destroyed by a typical losing streak. Before you start betting, you must determine the amount that you are going to bet during the entire season. Then you have to divide up your bankroll so that you can handle a normal losing streak and still be in the game. If you follow these guidelines you will survive anything.
- Increasing Bets On Win Streaks – do so only in moderation. When increasing your bets, do it gradually and never make some huge jump so that it will turn a modest losing streak into a monumental loss that wipes out months of hard work. That really hurts.
For example, lets say you bet a flat $10 per game and you are winning then increase to $15. And if things continue to go well, then increase your bets to $20. This way you will protect yourself against the downside and increase your winnings at the same time.
This way you will be able to minimize your losses if your luck should suddenly change.
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February 24th, 2010
Sports Betting Secret #14: Never Gamble With Money That You Cannot Afford To Lose.
Successful sports bettors all have at least this in common – they know how to properly manage their money. Superior handicapping/betting skills alone do not make one a winning player. To win, you must want to win bad enough so that you will be careful enough not to give your money back to the bookies.
This is a very important concept. Once you have won money from a bookie or sports book, that money is yours. Keep it that way. Subconsciously, the bettors that think of the money as not belonging to them tend to give it back immediately.
So start training yourself to think of the money as yours as soon as it has been won – because IT IS YOURS! Now you will not be so quick to give it back.
Also, do not gamble with needed funds no matter how “sure” the bet may seem at the time. The possibility of loss is always very real. And by loss I mean financially and emotionally. Gambling with money that is necessary for something else is a sure fire way to get yourself all emotional about it. And then who knows how desperate you will get.
Playing under escalated anxiety not only ruins all the fun and stresses you the hell out, but it also probably destroys your ability to make sound decisions and win your bets! That’s right. Bets made under duress and usually bad bets. So play the game strategically so that is easy for you not to get emotional.
Happy Betting.
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February 23rd, 2010
Sports Betting Secret #13: Why Money Management is so important
To consistently make profits over a long period of time in sports betting, you must not only make the right bets, but you also have to use your bankroll and keep control of your emotions. There is a tendency for people to ride a winning streak too hard and bet too much hoping to hit a super big payday. I have done it many times before I learned proper bankroll management.
Also, there is a tendency for gamblers to bet wildly amidst a losing streak to attempt to make a one bet comeback. This has spelled the death of many sports bettors that would have otherwise been on the path to profits. Improper money management can turn wins into losses and moderate losses into nightmares.
Both winning and losing streaks are a very real part of gambling. It is how you deal with these ups and downs that will determine just how well you’ll do at the end of the day.
That is precisely why money management is so critically important. When you are on a winning streak, you have to stretch those winnings to the maximum, but still safe level and make sure that you are a winner. And when things go the other direction, you must restrict losses to affordable amounts.
Money management takes a lot of discipline and for some people it probably takes some of the fun out of it too. But those are the people that must get a kick out of giving a lot of money to the sports books. Sports Betting is very similar to investing in stocks or other financials in the way that money management can make or break the investor.
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